The Ord Oracle October 10, 2023
SPX Monitoring Purposes: Long SPX 9/28/23 at 4299.70.
Gain since 12/20/22: 15.93%.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78.
Above is the monthly SPX. The pattern forming appears to be a head-and-shoulders bottom where the head is last October's low and the right shoulder is forming now. To confirm this pattern, a sign of strength (large volume and strong price movement) will be needed through the neckline (near 4600 SPX). If this pattern is confirmed, it has a measured target near 5700 SPX, which is 30% higher from current levels. The time it may take to reach this lofty level would be a year or longer. Seems far fetched, at the moment but the groundwork is present; we will need the sign of strength through 4600 to increase the likelihood.
Yesterday we said, "The bottom window is the NYSE Advancing issues/NYSE Total issues with a 10-period average. A Zweig Breadth Thrust occurs when this indicator drops below .40, then rallies to .60 within 10 days. We pointed out the previous Zweig Breadth Thrust in the past with blue dotted arrows. There were three Zweig thrusts in the basing period from April 2022 to April 2023. When a Zweig thrust occurs, it suggests a bullish intermediate-term rally is coming. The 10-day count down starts from last Thursday, when the Zweig thrust closed at .40. The 10-day count down to .60 would be October 19 or sooner. The current reading is .49, and we're almost halfway there. The current rally would need to continue to push the Zweig thrust higher. I'm thinking it's possible." The current reading now is .54 (over halfway there) and still have until next Thursday for .60 to be reached.
Tim Ord,
Editor
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