$SPY FLAGS NEW “GO” TREND IN THE FACE OF DEFENSIVE STRENGTH

Good morning and welcome to this week's Flight Path. We saw some resolution of the uncertainty in the markets this past week. Equities came out of a string of amber "Go Fish" bars to paint an aqua "Go" bar on Friday. The $SPY is a "Go". However, as we'll see, there remain some concerns over the strength of this move off the lows. Treasury bond prices remained in a "NoGo" but painted another complete week of weaker pink bars. The U.S. commodity index was unable to trend, as we saw amber "Go Fish" bars dominate again this week. The dollar remained in its "Go" trend and we saw some strength later in the week as blue bars returned.

$SPY Enters a "Go" Trend

After a week of amber "Go Fish" bars representing uncertainty, we saw a fresh "Go" trend emerge on the last day of the week as GoNoGo Trend painted an aqua bar. This is the first of the "Go" colors, so we will want to see stronger blue bars follow. This came after GoNoGo Oscillator broke out of a Max GoNoGo Squeeze into positive territory. This leading indication of positive momentum was a good sign as it told us that momentum was no longer on the side of the prior "NoGo" trend.

The larger weekly chart is very positive. After a period of weaker aqua "Go" bars that followed the Go Countertrend Correction Icon (red arrow) we have seen a blue "Go" bar return. This coincides with GoNoGO Oscillator finding support at the zero line. We now can say that momentum is resurgent in the direction of the "Go" trend. The green circle we see on the chart is a Go Trend Continuation Icon, visually informing us that momentum is confirming the underlying "Go" trend. We will look for price to make an attempt at a new higher high over the next few weeks.

Rates Stabilize at Lower Levels

GoNoGo Trend painted another week of aqua "Go" bars. This tells us that the trend remains in place but we are seeing continued weakness. Price seemed to consolidate last week with not much movement higher or lower. This is after a drop that was preceded by GoNoGo Oscillator failing to find support at the zero level. GoNoGo Oscillator is now in negative territory but not yet oversold. This negative momentum is out of step for the "Go" trend and so we have some concerns about the health of the "Go" trend.